A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
